Assessment Of Economic Security Of Territorial Systems Based On The Membership Function

Table 1: Characteristics of the economic security levels of the territory and security measures

Security level of the territory. Risk	Effects	Security measures
I. Zero risk level.System security ensured	Sustainable development of the socio-economic system. The indicators of the development and state of the system are at an average level: $X_{i} = \bar{X}$	Regular monitoring of socio-economic indicators, regulation of ongoing processes (management of negative trends and maintenance of positive changes). Significant risk management measures and impact on the level of economic security are not required.
II. Low system risk	The risks are predictable and manageable. The emerging negative tendencies are of a selective nature and can be eliminated in a short period of time. Deviations of indicators from average values vary within the standard deviation: $X_{i} = \bar{X} \pm σ$	To control indicators dynamics and risks impact, an extended list of accompanying indicators is required, signaling a possible further deviation of the situation development from its expected state. Analysis of the system symptoms, indicating the facts of expected (predicted) threats, in order to prevent their further development.
III. Medium system risk	Threats to economic security that were not predicted or their magnitude exceeds the expected consequences of the impact are realized. Possible realization of associated risks, the relationship of which has not been assessed in advance. Crisis phenomena are observed in vulnerable areas and industries affected by threats. Deviations of indicators from average values vary within two standard deviations: $X_{i} = \bar{X} \pm 2 σ$	It is required to strengthen socio-economic processes monitoring in the region, to increase the frequency of analyzing trends in relation to "problem" areas and indicators that respond to the threat impact. To expand the possibilities of further risks forecasting, to increase the accuracy of forecasts. Introduce measures to support vulnerable areas, industries and categories of the population.
IV. High system risk	Threat exposure significantly exceeds expected and acceptable levels. Crisis phenomena are typical for a significant number of spheres and sectors of the economy. Associated systemic and specific risks affect the entire socio-economic system.Deviations of indicators from average values vary within three standard deviations (and more): $X_{i} = \bar{X} \pm 3 σ$	Scale up monitoring of support measures of the economy, social sphere and the effectiveness of their implementation. Provide feedback on the assessment of the sufficiency of the implemented support measures. Introduce emergency measures to remedy the situation in the most important strategic areas and industries. Expand support measures for priority sectors and vulnerable groups of the population.

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