| Factor |
Factor impact |
Expected factor dynamics |
| Average level of real incomes and inequality |
Wealthier layers of the population have more savings opportunities (satisfaction of basic demands in goods and services using a smaller share of current income). The propensity to save can grow as a result of an increase in the average real incomes of the population and inequality growth (increase in the amount of incomes attributed to richer people) at the same average income level. |
The average growth of real incomes of the population can amount to 0.8% per annum from 2017 to 2021. Inequality is likely to grow: persons having more savings receive higher current interest income in the periods of relatively high real rates. If the tax burden level stays practically the same and the flat personal income tax rate will remain, the tax system will make a negative influence on savings behavior due to potential changes after 2018. |
| Social consumption standards and the standard of living |
The required current consumption costs (and the balance of current incomes that can be saved) depend on the standards of living. The average sufficiency of goods in the society forms a subjective perception of the purchasing power of incomes and the level of poverty by forming of a market basket. The growth of the real level of incomes does not always correspond to the consumption standard dynamics. |
The 11% decrease in the real incomes of the population triggered by the recession of 2014-2015 leads to the reduction in the consumption basket quality compared with the basket of the previous years. The growth of real incomes in the two-three-year perspective can fully account for the achievement of formerly habitual consumption standards, not facilitating any growth of the savings motivation. The consumption standards will get a little lower in the long run (it is impossible to return to the former income level in two-three years) facilitating growth of the propensity to save. |
| Current value of earlier accumulated savings |
Creates a perception of protection against macroeconomic force-majeure and current income fluctuations. A significant increase in relation to current expenses lowers the importance of the caution motive in savings forming and reduces the savings volume. |
The market asset price dynamics will be the only real opportunity for a considerable change in the savings value in the near future due to the moderate income dynamics. We are not expecting any serious leads or lags of real estate prices, securities or foreign currency value in the basic scenario. |
| Level of real and nominal interest rates |
The growth of the average return on investments raises the savings motivation.Correlation between rates of various instruments changes the savings structure: the population selects savings offering higher rates. |
The principles of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia for the coming two-three years and demographic trends are likely to result in ruble deposit rates exceeding inflation and most foreign currency deposit rates. |
| Average age and distribution by age |
People of working age show the greatest propensity to save: their savings are aimed at support of their children and themselves in old age.The average age growth reduces the average propensity to save because of the elderly on the one hand and on the other hand makes young people and people of working age save more for the senior years. |
The coming life expectancy at birth will raise from 71.5 years to 72.9 years with a tendency to grow. The correlation between the number of people in unemployable age and the people of working age will increase from 54.1% to 62.8%. |
